Boston Bruins at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2025-10-27 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 7 - 2 Boston Bruins

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

OTT: 67.1%

BOS: 32.9%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.82

BOS: 2.50

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 39%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

OTT

Leevi Meriläinen - 5-7-0 | 0.872 SV% | 3.46 GAA

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

Stat	OTT	BOS
Season SV%	0.872	0.903
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.46	2.84

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Leevi Meriläinen	28	26	2	92.9%	1.59	0	-0.41
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	23	16	7	69.6%	2.98	3	-4.02

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • OTT at home vs BOS: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-21	BOS 2 - 6 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-11-13	OTT 5 - 3 BOS	OTT	OTT
2025-11-06	BOS 3 - 2 OTT	BOS	OTT
2025-10-27	OTT 7 - 2 BOS	OTT	OTT
2025-03-13	OTT 6 - 3 BOS	OTT	OTT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	19	1	1.24
1	BOS	12	0	0.66
2	OTT	10	0	0.75
2	BOS	17	0	0.53
3	OTT	11	2	0.99
3	BOS	15	0	0.41

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 67.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown