Columbus Blue Jackets at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2025-10-28 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 4 Columbus Blue Jackets (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BUF: 55.8%

CBJ: 44.2%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.29

CBJ: 3.19

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BUF

Alex Lyon - 10-6-3 | 0.906 SV% | 2.82 GAA

CBJ

Jet Greaves - 11-10-5 | 0.909 SV% | 2.62 GAA

Stat	BUF	CBJ
Season SV%	0.906	0.909
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.82	2.62

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Alex Lyon	39	35	4	89.7%	3.57	1	-0.43
CBJ	Jet Greaves	38	35	3	92.1%	3.18	2	0.18

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • BUF at home vs CBJ: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-09	BUF 5 - 0 CBJ	BUF	BUF
2026-01-03	CBJ 5 - 1 BUF	CBJ	BUF
2025-10-28	BUF 3 - 4 CBJ	CBJ	BUF
2025-04-10	CBJ 3 - 2 BUF	CBJ	BUF
2025-02-04	BUF 3 - 2 CBJ	BUF	BUF

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	12	0	0.53
1	CBJ	20	0	0.99
2	BUF	16	1	1.42
2	CBJ	16	0	1.10
3	BUF	21	1	1.07
3	CBJ	18	1	1.23
4	BUF	1	0	0.16
4	CBJ	2	0	0.26

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 3 - 4 Columbus Blue Jackets

Expected: 3.3 - 3.2