Anaheim Ducks at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2025-10-28 • Amerant Bank Arena

Florida Panthers 2 - 3 Anaheim Ducks (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

FLA: 57.1%

ANA: 42.9%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.67

ANA: 2.90

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

FLA

Daniil Tarasov - 4-6-2 | 0.899 SV% | 2.96 GAA

ANA

Lukas Dostal - 13-9-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.15 GAA

Stat	FLA	ANA
Season SV%	0.899	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.96	3.15

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Daniil Tarasov	20	16	4	80.0%	4.18	4	0.18
ANA	Lukas Dostal	36	33	3	91.7%	4.99	3	1.99

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • FLA at home vs ANA: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-04	ANA 7 - 3 FLA	ANA	FLA
2025-10-28	FLA 2 - 3 ANA	ANA	FLA
2025-01-21	ANA 2 - 5 FLA	FLA	FLA
2025-01-18	FLA 3 - 0 ANA	FLA	FLA
2024-01-15	FLA 4 - 5 ANA	ANA	FLA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	17	1	0.91
1	ANA	11	1	0.74
2	FLA	22	1	1.52
2	ANA	11	1	0.97
3	FLA	9	0	0.74
3	ANA	8	0	0.46
4	FLA	8	0	0.77
4	ANA	1	0	0.06
5	FLA	3	1	1.04
5	ANA	3	2	1.95

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Florida Panthers 2 - 3 Anaheim Ducks

Expected: 3.7 - 2.9