New York Islanders at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2025-10-28 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 5 - 2 New York Islanders

🚨 Upset Win (67% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BOS: 32.5%

NYI: 67.5%

Expected Goals

BOS: 2.57

NYI: 3.85

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BOS

Joonas Korpisalo - 6-8-0 | 0.882 SV% | 3.60 GAA

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Stat	BOS	NYI
Season SV%	0.882	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.60	2.55

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Joonas Korpisalo	35	33	2	94.3%	3.08	2	1.08
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	22	17	5	77.3%	3.22	3	-1.78

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • BOS at home vs NYI: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-26	NYI 1 - 3 BOS	BOS	NYI
2025-11-04	NYI 3 - 4 BOS	BOS	NYI
2025-10-28	BOS 5 - 2 NYI	BOS	NYI
2025-02-27	BOS 1 - 2 NYI	NYI	NYI
2025-01-05	BOS 4 - 5 NYI	NYI	NYI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	7	0	0.33
1	NYI	11	2	0.92
2	BOS	13	0	0.90
2	NYI	11	0	0.68
3	BOS	12	3	1.99
3	NYI	24	0	1.49

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 67.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown