Ottawa Senators at Chicago Blackhawks NHL Predictions

2025-10-28 • United Center

Chicago Blackhawks 7 - 3 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Win (55% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CHI: 45.4%

OTT: 54.6%

Expected Goals

CHI: 3.08

OTT: 2.86

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 51%

Over 6.5: 37%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CHI

Spencer Knight - 11-11-6 | 0.909 SV% | 2.63 GAA

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

Stat	CHI	OTT
Season SV%	0.909	0.881
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.63	2.95

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CHI	Spencer Knight	24	21	3	87.5%	2.21	0	-0.79
OTT	Linus Ullmark	26	19	7	73.1%	2.45	1	-4.55

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • CHI at home vs OTT: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-20	OTT 6 - 4 CHI	OTT	OTT
2025-10-28	CHI 7 - 3 OTT	CHI	OTT
2025-04-15	OTT 3 - 4 CHI	CHI	OTT
2025-03-05	CHI 3 - 4 OTT	OTT	OTT
2024-03-28	OTT 2 - 0 CHI	OTT	OTT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CHI	15	0	0.39
1	OTT	11	0	0.50
2	CHI	7	0	0.58
2	OTT	19	0	1.22
3	CHI	16	1	1.47
3	OTT	12	0	0.49

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown