New Jersey Devils at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2025-10-28 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 8 - 4 New Jersey Devils

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

COL: 68.4%

NJD: 31.6%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.39

NJD: 2.54

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 52%

Over 6.5: 40%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

COL

Scott Wedgewood - 17-1-4 | 0.919 SV% | 2.13 GAA

NJD

Jacob Markstrom - 9-9-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.32 GAA

Stat	COL	NJD
Season SV%	0.919	0.884
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.13	3.32

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Scott Wedgewood	30	26	4	86.7%	2.77	1	-1.23
NJD	Jacob Markstrom	42	34	8	81.0%	3.54	1	-4.46

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • COL at home vs NJD: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-10-28	COL 8 - 4 NJD	COL	COL
2025-10-26	NJD 4 - 3 COL	NJD	COL
2025-02-26	COL 5 - 1 NJD	COL	COL
2024-12-08	NJD 0 - 4 COL	COL	COL
2024-02-06	NJD 5 - 3 COL	NJD	NJD

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	14	0	0.77
1	NJD	24	0	0.94
2	COL	22	1	1.48
2	NJD	14	1	1.29
3	COL	18	0	1.29
3	NJD	8	0	0.53

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 68.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 12.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown