Montreal Canadiens at Seattle Kraken NHL Predictions

2025-10-28 • Climate Pledge Arena

Seattle Kraken 3 - 4 Montreal Canadiens (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

SEA: 44.7%

MTL: 55.3%

Expected Goals

SEA: 3.11

MTL: 3.30

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

SEA

Joey Daccord - 10-9-5 | 0.903 SV% | 2.77 GAA

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 13-5-3 | 0.889 SV% | 3.01 GAA

Stat	SEA	MTL
Season SV%	0.903	0.889
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.77	3.01

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SEA	Joey Daccord	21	17	4	81.0%	1.81	2	-2.19
MTL	Jakub Dobes	21	18	3	85.7%	1.88	1	-1.12

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • SEA at home vs MTL: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-10-28	SEA 3 - 4 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-10-14	MTL 5 - 4 SEA	MTL	MTL
2025-03-12	SEA 5 - 4 MTL	SEA	SEA
2024-10-29	MTL 2 - 8 SEA	SEA	SEA
2024-03-24	SEA 1 - 5 MTL	MTL	SEA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SEA	7	1	0.55
1	MTL	10	2	0.79
2	SEA	9	0	0.52
2	MTL	12	0	0.46
3	SEA	15	0	0.80
3	MTL	9	0	0.33
4	SEA	0	0	0.00
4	MTL	2	0	0.23

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Seattle Kraken 3 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.1 - 3.3