Pittsburgh Penguins at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2025-10-30 • Grand Casino Arena

Minnesota Wild 1 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MIN: 57.9%

PIT: 42.1%

Expected Goals

MIN: 3.53

PIT: 3.40

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 40%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Stat	MIN	PIT
Season SV%	0.912	0.892
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.47	3.12

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	34	30	4	88.2%	3.82	3	-0.18
PIT	Tristan Jarry	27	26	1	96.3%	2.52	2	1.52

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • MIN at home vs PIT: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-21	PIT 0 - 5 MIN	MIN	PIT
2025-10-30	MIN 1 - 4 PIT	PIT	MIN
2025-03-09	MIN 1 - 3 PIT	PIT	PIT
2024-10-29	PIT 3 - 5 MIN	MIN	MIN
2024-02-09	MIN 3 - 2 PIT	MIN	PIT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MIN	18	1	1.09
1	PIT	7	0	0.32
2	MIN	13	1	1.14
2	PIT	19	1	1.34
3	MIN	11	0	0.29
3	PIT	21	2	2.16

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown