New York Rangers at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2025-10-30 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 3 - 4 New York Rangers (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

EDM: 55.4%

NYR: 44.6%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.28

NYR: 2.64

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 41%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Stat	EDM	NYR
Season SV%	0.896	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.81	2.51

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Stuart Skinner	35	31	4	88.6%	3.58	0	-0.42
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	36	33	3	91.7%	3.31	2	0.31

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • EDM at home vs NYR: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-10-30	EDM 3 - 4 NYR	NYR	EDM
2025-10-14	NYR 0 - 2 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-03-16	NYR 1 - 3 EDM	EDM	EDM
2024-11-23	EDM 6 - 2 NYR	EDM	EDM
2023-12-22	NYR 3 - 4 EDM	EDM	EDM

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	13	0	0.88
1	NYR	23	0	1.64
2	EDM	19	2	1.63
2	NYR	11	0	0.59
3	EDM	10	0	0.57
3	NYR	17	0	1.17
4	EDM	3	0	0.23
4	NYR	1	0	0.18

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 3 - 4 New York Rangers

Expected: 3.3 - 2.6