New York Islanders at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions
2025-10-31 • Capital One Arena
Washington Capitals 1 - 3 New York Islanders
🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
WSH: 56.9%
NYI: 43.1%
Expected Goals
WSH: 3.56
NYI: 2.78
Total Goals
Median: 6.1
Over 5.5: 64%
Over 6.5: 47%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
WSH
Logan Thompson - 20-16-4 | 0.913 SV% | 2.41 GAA
NYI
Ilya Sorokin - 20-13-2 | 0.916 SV% | 2.44 GAA
| Stat | WSH | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.910 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.904 | 0.930 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.944 | 0.899 |
| GAA | 2.39 | 2.55 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • WSH at home vs NYI: 3-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-02 | WSH 4 - 1 NYI | WSH | WSH |
| 2025-11-30 | NYI 1 - 4 WSH | WSH | NYI |
| 2025-10-31 | WSH 1 - 3 NYI | NYI | WSH |
| 2025-10-11 | NYI 2 - 4 WSH | WSH | NYI |
| 2025-04-15 | NYI 1 - 3 WSH | WSH | NYI |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 14:58 | WSH | Goal |
| 2 | 04:48 | WSH | Goal |
| 3 | 18:44 | NYI | Goal |
| 3 | 04:29 | NYI | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 56.9%
Total Goals
Actual: 4.0
Expected: 6.3
Score Breakdown
Washington Capitals 1 - 3 New York Islanders
Expected: 3.6 - 2.8