Carolina Hurricanes at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2025-11-01 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 2 - 1 Carolina Hurricanes

🚨 Upset Win (60% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BOS: 39.7%

CAR: 60.3%

Expected Goals

BOS: 2.67

CAR: 2.94

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 51%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

Stat	BOS	CAR
Season SV%	0.903	0.865
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.84	3.38

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	29	28	1	96.6%	2.26	0	1.26
CAR	Frederik Andersen	22	20	2	90.9%	3.40	5	1.40

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • BOS at home vs CAR: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	CAR 6 - 5 BOS	CAR	CAR
2025-11-17	BOS 1 - 3 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-11-01	BOS 2 - 1 CAR	BOS	CAR
2025-04-05	BOS 5 - 1 CAR	BOS	CAR
2025-03-06	CAR 3 - 2 BOS	CAR	CAR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	17	2	1.52
1	CAR	16	0	0.88
2	BOS	14	2	1.10
2	CAR	10	0	0.37
3	BOS	7	1	0.78
3	CAR	17	0	1.01

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.6

Score Breakdown