Calgary Flames at Nashville Predators NHL Predictions

2025-11-01 • Bridgestone Arena

Nashville Predators 4 - 2 Calgary Flames

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NSH: 48.1%

CGY: 51.9%

Expected Goals

NSH: 3.16

CGY: 2.95

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NSH

Juuse Saros - 15-13-3 | 0.897 SV% | 2.93 GAA

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Stat	NSH	CGY
Season SV%	0.897	0.901
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.93	2.82

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NSH	Juuse Saros	35	33	2	94.3%	2.54	2	0.54
CGY	Dustin Wolf	24	20	4	83.3%	2.53	1	-1.47

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • NSH at home vs CGY: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-03	CGY 3 - 4 NSH	NSH	NSH
2025-12-02	NSH 5 - 1 CGY	NSH	NSH
2025-11-01	NSH 4 - 2 CGY	NSH	CGY
2025-01-04	CGY 1 - 4 NSH	NSH	CGY
2024-12-10	NSH 3 - 4 CGY	CGY	NSH

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NSH	16	0	1.02
1	CGY	22	0	0.85
2	NSH	10	0	0.65
2	CGY	14	1	0.91
3	NSH	8	1	0.87
3	CGY	16	1	0.79

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown