Toronto Maple Leafs at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2025-11-01 • Xfinity Mobile Arena

Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PHI: 47.6%

TOR: 52.4%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.52

TOR: 2.47

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PHI

Dan Vladar - 14-6-3 | 0.910 SV% | 2.40 GAA

TOR

Anthony Stolarz - 6-5-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.51 GAA

Stat	PHI	TOR
Season SV%	0.910	0.884
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.40	3.51

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Dan Vladar	27	22	5	81.5%	3.56	4	-1.44
TOR	Anthony Stolarz	33	31	2	93.9%	3.05	0	1.05

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • PHI at home vs TOR: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-02	TOR 2 - 3 PHI	PHI	PHI
2026-01-08	PHI 1 - 2 TOR	TOR	PHI
2025-11-01	PHI 2 - 5 TOR	TOR	TOR
2025-03-25	TOR 7 - 2 PHI	TOR	PHI
2025-01-07	PHI 2 - 3 TOR	TOR	PHI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	13	0	0.70
1	TOR	12	0	0.94
2	PHI	16	0	0.89
2	TOR	15	1	1.10
3	PHI	23	0	1.46
3	TOR	10	3	1.52

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown