Tampa Bay Lightning at Utah Hockey Club NHL Predictions
2025-11-02 • Delta Center
Utah Hockey Club 2 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning
🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
UTA: 53.5%
TBL: 46.5%
Expected Goals
UTA: 3.25
TBL: 2.73
Total Goals
Median: 5.5
Over 5.5: 51%
Over 6.5: 37%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
UTA
Karel Vejmelka - 38-20-3 | 0.896 SV% | 2.75 GAA
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 39-15-4 | 0.911 SV% | 2.31 GAA
| Stat | UTA | TBL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.895 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.881 | 0.919 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.907 | 1.000 |
| GAA | 2.68 | 2.33 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 25% • UTA at home vs TBL: 1-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-26 | TBL 2 - 0 UTA | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-11-02 | UTA 2 - 4 TBL | TBL | UTA |
| 2025-03-27 | TBL 8 - 0 UTA | TBL | UTA |
| 2025-03-22 | UTA 6 - 4 TBL | UTA | TBL |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 53.5%
Total Goals
Actual: 6.0
Expected: 6.0
Score Breakdown
Utah Hockey Club 2 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected: 3.3 - 2.7
Like this analysis? Get it daily.
Short, data-driven emails. Unsubscribe any time.