Tampa Bay Lightning at Utah Hockey Club NHL Predictions

2025-11-02 • Delta Center

Utah Hockey Club 2 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

UTA: 51.1%

TBL: 48.9%

Expected Goals

UTA: 3.13

TBL: 3.00

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 41%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

UTA

Karel Vejmelka - 17-10-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.68 GAA

TBL

Jonas Johansson - 9-6-1 | 0.894 SV% | 2.83 GAA

Stat	UTA	TBL
Season SV%	0.895	0.894
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.68	2.83

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	26	22	4	84.6%	3.86	3	-0.14
TBL	Jonas Johansson	27	25	2	92.6%	2.74	1	0.74

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 25% • UTA at home vs TBL: 1-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-26	TBL 2 - 0 UTA	TBL	TBL
2025-11-02	UTA 2 - 4 TBL	TBL	UTA
2025-03-27	TBL 8 - 0 UTA	TBL	UTA
2025-03-22	UTA 6 - 4 TBL	UTA	TBL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	UTA	7	1	0.84
1	TBL	13	0	0.83
2	UTA	15	0	0.88
2	TBL	15	0	0.60
3	UTA	16	0	1.02
3	TBL	10	3	2.43

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown