Philadelphia Flyers at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2025-11-04 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 5 Philadelphia Flyers (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MTL: 56.4%

PHI: 43.6%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.82

PHI: 3.42

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 40%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

PHI

Dan Vladar - 14-6-3 | 0.910 SV% | 2.40 GAA

Stat	MTL	PHI
Season SV%	0.863	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.52	2.40

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	44	39	5	88.6%	5.68	5	0.68
PHI	Dan Vladar	21	17	4	81.0%	2.99	2	-1.01

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • MTL at home vs PHI: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-14	PHI 4 - 2 MTL	PHI	PHI
2025-12-16	MTL 1 - 4 PHI	PHI	MTL
2025-11-04	MTL 4 - 5 PHI	PHI	MTL
2025-04-05	MTL 3 - 2 PHI	MTL	PHI
2025-03-27	PHI 6 - 4 MTL	PHI	PHI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	5	0	0.30
1	PHI	16	1	1.25
2	MTL	13	2	1.58
2	PHI	22	1	1.95
3	MTL	14	0	0.56
3	PHI	14	2	1.15
4	MTL	3	0	0.34
4	PHI	3	0	0.30
5	MTL	3	0	0.21
5	PHI	2	1	1.03

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 7.2

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 5 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.8 - 3.4