Philadelphia Flyers at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2025-11-04 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 5 Philadelphia Flyers (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 55.6%

PHI: 44.4%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.86

PHI: 3.33

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 39%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • MTL at home vs PHI: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-14	PHI 4 - 2 MTL	PHI	PHI
2025-12-16	MTL 1 - 4 PHI	PHI	MTL
2025-11-04	MTL 4 - 5 PHI	PHI	MTL
2025-04-05	MTL 3 - 2 PHI	MTL	PHI
2025-03-27	PHI 6 - 4 MTL	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	5	0	0.30
1	PHI	16	1	1.25
2	MTL	13	2	1.58
2	PHI	22	1	1.95
3	MTL	14	0	0.56
3	PHI	14	2	1.15
4	MTL	3	0	0.34
4	PHI	3	0	0.30
5	MTL	3	0	0.21
5	PHI	2	1	1.03

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 7.2

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 5 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.9 - 3.3