Boston Bruins at New York Islanders NHL Predictions
2025-11-04 • UBS Arena
New York Islanders 3 - 4 Boston Bruins (SO)
🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
NYI: 55.8%
BOS: 44.2%
Expected Goals
NYI: 3.59
BOS: 2.64
Total Goals
Median: 6.1
Over 5.5: 61%
Over 6.5: 46%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
NYI
Ilya Sorokin - 20-13-2 | 0.916 SV% | 2.44 GAA
BOS
Jeremy Swayman - 22-12-3 | 0.903 SV% | 2.92 GAA
| Stat | NYI | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.910 | 0.903 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.930 | 0.889 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.839 | 0.948 |
| GAA | 2.55 | 2.84 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • NYI at home vs BOS: 1-4
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-26 | NYI 1 - 3 BOS | BOS | NYI |
| 2025-11-04 | NYI 3 - 4 BOS | BOS | NYI |
| 2025-10-28 | BOS 5 - 2 NYI | BOS | BOS |
| 2025-02-27 | BOS 1 - 2 NYI | NYI | BOS |
| 2025-01-05 | BOS 4 - 5 NYI | NYI | BOS |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 05:11 | NYI | Goal |
| 2 | 12:21 | NYI | Goal |
| 2 | 13:06 | NYI | Goal |
| 2 | 17:29 | NYI | Goal |
| 3 | 05:05 | NYI | Goal |
| 3 | 15:06 | NYI | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | NYI | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 55.8%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.2
Score Breakdown
New York Islanders 3 - 4 Boston Bruins
Expected: 3.6 - 2.6