Boston Bruins at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2025-11-04 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 3 - 4 Boston Bruins (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYI: 53.0%

BOS: 47.0%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.36

BOS: 2.89

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

Stat	NYI	BOS
Season SV%	0.910	0.903
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.55	2.84

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	29	25	4	86.2%	4.20	5	0.20
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	34	31	3	91.2%	4.03	4	1.03

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • NYI at home vs BOS: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-26	NYI 1 - 3 BOS	BOS	NYI
2025-11-04	NYI 3 - 4 BOS	BOS	NYI
2025-10-28	BOS 5 - 2 NYI	BOS	NYI
2025-02-27	BOS 1 - 2 NYI	NYI	NYI
2025-01-05	BOS 4 - 5 NYI	NYI	NYI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	6	0	0.32
1	BOS	7	0	0.25
2	NYI	25	2	1.93
2	BOS	16	3	1.68
3	NYI	15	1	1.15
3	BOS	15	1	1.13
4	NYI	3	1	0.39
4	BOS	3	0	0.23
5	NYI	3	0	0.23
5	BOS	2	1	0.92

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 3 - 4 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.4 - 2.9