Edmonton Oilers at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2025-11-04 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 4 - 3 Edmonton Oilers (SO)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DAL: 55.4%

EDM: 44.6%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.91

EDM: 2.91

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DAL

Casey DeSmith - 9-2-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

Stat	DAL	EDM
Season SV%	0.912	0.896
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.44	2.81

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Casey DeSmith	28	24	4	85.7%	3.95	3	-0.05
EDM	Stuart Skinner	29	24	5	82.8%	7.00	13	2.00

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • DAL at home vs EDM: 6-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-12	DAL 7 - 2 EDM	DAL	DAL
2025-11-25	EDM 3 - 8 DAL	DAL	EDM
2025-11-04	DAL 4 - 3 EDM	DAL	DAL
2025-05-29	DAL 3 - 6 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-05-27	EDM 4 - 1 DAL	EDM	EDM

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	15	4	1.87
1	EDM	12	1	0.86
2	DAL	14	3	1.49
2	EDM	12	0	0.92
3	DAL	9	3	1.05
3	EDM	15	1	1.00
4	DAL	4	1	0.62
4	EDM	2	0	0.17
5	DAL	3	2	1.97
5	EDM	2	1	1.01

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 4 - 3 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 3.9 - 2.9