Florida Panthers at Anaheim Ducks NHL Predictions

2025-11-04 • Honda Center

Anaheim Ducks 7 - 3 Florida Panthers

🚨 Upset Win (58% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

ANA: 42.5%

FLA: 57.5%

Expected Goals

ANA: 2.79

FLA: 3.33

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

ANA

Lukas Dostal - 13-9-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.15 GAA

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Stat	ANA	FLA
Season SV%	0.888	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.15	2.80

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ANA	Lukas Dostal	21	18	3	85.7%	2.36	0	-0.64
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	32	25	7	78.1%	3.76	2	-3.24

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • ANA at home vs FLA: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-04	ANA 7 - 3 FLA	ANA	FLA
2025-10-28	FLA 2 - 3 ANA	ANA	FLA
2025-01-21	ANA 2 - 5 FLA	FLA	FLA
2025-01-18	FLA 3 - 0 ANA	FLA	FLA
2024-01-15	FLA 4 - 5 ANA	ANA	FLA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ANA	14	0	1.01
1	FLA	17	0	1.07
2	ANA	18	1	1.34
2	FLA	16	0	0.98
3	ANA	15	1	1.42
3	FLA	6	0	0.32

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown