St. Louis Blues at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2025-11-05 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 6 - 1 St. Louis Blues

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

WSH: 59.3%

STL: 40.7%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.51

STL: 2.97

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

Stat	WSH	STL
Season SV%	0.913	0.869
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.39	3.56

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Logan Thompson	24	23	1	95.8%	2.47	0	1.47
STL	Jordan Binnington	32	26	6	81.2%	3.92	5	-2.08

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • WSH at home vs STL: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	STL 3 - 0 WSH	STL	STL
2025-11-05	WSH 6 - 1 STL	WSH	WSH
2025-02-27	WSH 2 - 5 STL	STL	WSH
2024-11-09	STL 1 - 8 WSH	WSH	STL
2024-01-20	STL 3 - 0 WSH	STL	STL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	18	1	1.13
1	STL	9	0	0.56
2	WSH	13	2	1.27
2	STL	15	0	1.11
3	WSH	14	2	1.53
3	STL	12	0	0.80

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown