Ottawa Senators at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2025-11-06 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 3 - 2 Ottawa Senators (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (70% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BOS: 30.2%

OTT: 69.8%

Expected Goals

BOS: 2.86

OTT: 3.78

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 37%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BOS

Joonas Korpisalo - 6-8-0 | 0.882 SV% | 3.60 GAA

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

Stat	BOS	OTT
Season SV%	0.882	0.881
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.60	2.95

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Joonas Korpisalo	22	20	2	90.9%	1.80	0	-0.20
OTT	Linus Ullmark	25	22	3	88.0%	3.02	3	0.02

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • BOS at home vs OTT: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-21	BOS 2 - 6 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-11-13	OTT 5 - 3 BOS	OTT	OTT
2025-11-06	BOS 3 - 2 OTT	BOS	OTT
2025-10-27	OTT 7 - 2 BOS	OTT	OTT
2025-03-13	OTT 6 - 3 BOS	OTT	OTT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	13	1	0.52
1	OTT	7	0	0.26
2	BOS	15	1	1.49
2	OTT	9	0	0.16
3	BOS	5	0	0.25
3	OTT	14	0	0.94
4	BOS	7	1	0.75
4	OTT	4	0	0.45

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 69.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 3 - 2 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 2.9 - 3.8