Montreal Canadiens at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions

2025-11-06 • Prudential Center

New Jersey Devils 4 - 3 Montreal Canadiens (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NJD: 50.3%

MTL: 49.7%

Expected Goals

NJD: 3.51

MTL: 3.24

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NJD

Jacob Markstrom - 9-9-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.32 GAA

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 13-5-3 | 0.889 SV% | 3.01 GAA

Stat	NJD	MTL
Season SV%	0.884	0.889
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.32	3.01

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NJD	Jacob Markstrom	19	16	3	84.2%	2.07	1	-0.93
MTL	Jakub Dobes	28	24	4	85.7%	2.57	0	-1.43

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • NJD at home vs MTL: 4-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-05	MTL 0 - 3 NJD	NJD	NJD
2026-04-04	NJD 3 - 4 MTL	MTL	NJD
2025-11-06	NJD 4 - 3 MTL	NJD	NJD
2025-02-08	MTL 0 - 4 NJD	NJD	NJD
2025-01-25	MTL 3 - 4 NJD	NJD	NJD

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NJD	10	0	0.64
1	MTL	8	0	0.69
2	NJD	17	0	1.14
2	MTL	10	1	0.82
3	NJD	10	0	0.52
3	MTL	10	0	0.55
4	NJD	2	0	0.27
4	MTL	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

New Jersey Devils 4 - 3 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.5 - 3.2