Washington Capitals at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2025-11-06 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 3 Washington Capitals

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PIT: 54.6%

WSH: 45.4%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.33

WSH: 3.62

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 52%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PIT

Arturs Silovs - 7-5-6 | 0.886 SV% | 3.20 GAA

WSH

Charlie Lindgren - 6-4-2 | 0.887 SV% | 3.07 GAA

Stat	PIT	WSH
Season SV%	0.886	0.887
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.20	3.07

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Arturs Silovs	30	27	3	90.0%	3.02	2	0.02
WSH	Charlie Lindgren	31	26	5	83.9%	4.33	3	-0.67

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • PIT at home vs WSH: 3-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-07	WSH 5 - 3 PIT	WSH	PIT
2026-04-12	WSH 3 - 0 PIT	WSH	WSH
2026-04-11	PIT 3 - 6 WSH	WSH	PIT
2025-11-06	PIT 5 - 3 WSH	PIT	PIT
2025-04-17	PIT 5 - 2 WSH	PIT	WSH

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	23	1	1.72
1	WSH	8	0	0.29
2	PIT	16	1	1.53
2	WSH	21	2	1.96
3	PIT	12	1	1.07
3	WSH	13	0	0.77

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown