Winnipeg Jets at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2025-11-07 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 2 - 1 Winnipeg Jets

🚨 Upset Win (56% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

SJS: 43.8%

WPG: 56.2%

Expected Goals

SJS: 3.14

WPG: 3.26

Total Goals

Median: 5.6

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

SJS

Alex Nedeljkovic - 5-7-2 | 0.895 SV% | 3.06 GAA

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Stat	SJS	WPG
Season SV%	0.895	0.907
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.06	2.51

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	Alex Nedeljkovic	33	32	1	97.0%	3.10	2	2.10
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	28	26	2	92.9%	3.36	1	1.36

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • SJS at home vs WPG: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-16	WPG 1 - 6 SJS	SJS	WPG
2026-03-01	SJS 2 - 1 WPG	SJS	WPG
2025-11-07	SJS 2 - 1 WPG	SJS	WPG
2025-02-24	WPG 2 - 1 SJS	WPG	WPG
2024-12-17	SJS 3 - 4 WPG	WPG	WPG

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	14	0	0.98
1	WPG	15	1	1.52
2	SJS	16	0	1.21
2	WPG	13	1	0.63
3	SJS	11	1	1.17
3	WPG	14	0	0.95

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown