Boston Bruins at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-11-08 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 5 Boston Bruins

🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TOR: 60.5%

BOS: 39.5%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.52

BOS: 2.84

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TOR

Anthony Stolarz - 6-5-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.51 GAA

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

Stat	TOR	BOS
Season SV%	0.884	0.903
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.51	2.84

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Anthony Stolarz	39	34	5	87.2%	4.41	4	-0.59
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	33	30	3	90.9%	3.83	4	0.83

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • TOR at home vs BOS: 3-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	BOS 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	BOS
2025-11-11	BOS 5 - 3 TOR	BOS	BOS
2025-11-08	TOR 3 - 5 BOS	BOS	TOR
2025-02-25	BOS 4 - 5 TOR	TOR	BOS
2025-01-04	TOR 6 - 4 BOS	TOR	TOR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	11	1	0.99
1	BOS	20	1	1.18
2	TOR	19	1	1.08
2	BOS	23	3	2.58
3	TOR	22	2	1.77
3	BOS	14	0	0.65

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown