Utah Hockey Club at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2025-11-08 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 6 - 2 Utah Hockey Club

🚨 Upset Win (63% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MTL: 36.5%

UTA: 63.5%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.43

UTA: 3.18

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 52%

Over 6.5: 37%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

UTA

Karel Vejmelka - 17-10-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.68 GAA

Stat	MTL	UTA
Season SV%	0.863	0.895
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.52	2.68

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	27	25	2	92.6%	3.28	3	1.28
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	23	17	6	73.9%	2.70	0	-3.30

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 25% • MTL at home vs UTA: 1-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-26	UTA 3 - 4 MTL	MTL	UTA
2025-11-08	MTL 6 - 2 UTA	MTL	UTA
2025-01-14	UTA 3 - 5 MTL	MTL	UTA
2024-11-26	MTL 2 - 3 UTA	UTA	UTA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	9	0	0.60
1	UTA	6	1	0.43
2	MTL	9	0	0.69
2	UTA	20	2	2.11
3	MTL	17	0	1.40
3	UTA	15	0	0.74

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 63.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown