Washington Capitals at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions
2025-11-08 • Benchmark International Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 2 Washington Capitals
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TBL: 53.5%
WSH: 46.5%
Expected Goals
TBL: 3.36
WSH: 3.61
Total Goals
Median: 7.0
Over 5.5: 70%
Over 6.5: 56%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 28-7-3 | 0.920 SV% | 2.11 GAA
WSH
Logan Thompson - 20-16-4 | 0.913 SV% | 2.41 GAA
| Stat | TBL | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.921 | 0.904 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.914 | 0.800 |
| GAA | 2.33 | 2.39 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • TBL at home vs WSH: 2-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-22 | WSH 3 - 5 TBL | TBL | WSH |
| 2025-11-08 | TBL 3 - 2 WSH | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-10-14 | WSH 3 - 2 TBL | WSH | WSH |
| 2025-03-01 | WSH 1 - 3 TBL | TBL | WSH |
| 2024-11-27 | TBL 4 - 5 WSH | WSH | WSH |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15:09 | TBL | Goal |
| 1 | 06:07 | TBL | Goal |
| 1 | 04:06 | WSH | Goal |
| 2 | 17:08 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 08:42 | TBL | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 53.5%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 7.0
Score Breakdown
Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 2 Washington Capitals
Expected: 3.4 - 3.6