Washington Capitals at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-11-08 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 2 Washington Capitals

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TBL: 54.7%

WSH: 45.3%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.37

WSH: 2.73

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

Stat	TBL	WSH
Season SV%	0.913	0.913
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.33	2.39

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	31	29	2	93.5%	3.04	1	1.04
WSH	Logan Thompson	20	17	3	85.0%	1.70	0	-1.30

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • TBL at home vs WSH: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-22	WSH 3 - 5 TBL	TBL	WSH
2025-11-08	TBL 3 - 2 WSH	TBL	TBL
2025-10-14	WSH 3 - 2 TBL	WSH	WSH
2025-03-01	WSH 1 - 3 TBL	TBL	TBL
2024-11-27	TBL 4 - 5 WSH	WSH	TBL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	9	0	0.67
1	WSH	20	0	0.97
2	TBL	11	0	0.62
2	WSH	16	1	1.36
3	TBL	9	0	0.41
3	WSH	14	0	0.72

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown