Anaheim Ducks at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2025-11-08 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 4 Anaheim Ducks (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (64% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VGK: 64.4%

ANA: 35.6%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.50

ANA: 2.90

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VGK

Akira Schmid - 11-4-4 | 0.895 SV% | 2.50 GAA

ANA

Petr Mrazek - 3-4-0 | 0.865 SV% | 3.78 GAA

Stat	VGK	ANA
Season SV%	0.895	0.865
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.50	3.78

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Akira Schmid	29	25	4	86.2%	2.87	1	-1.13
ANA	Petr Mrazek	39	36	3	92.3%	3.89	3	0.89

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • VGK at home vs ANA: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-14	ANA 1 - 5 VGK	VGK	ANA
2026-05-12	VGK 3 - 2 ANA	VGK	VGK
2026-05-10	ANA 4 - 3 VGK	ANA	VGK
2026-05-08	ANA 2 - 6 VGK	VGK	ANA
2026-05-06	VGK 1 - 3 ANA	ANA	VGK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	11	2	0.74
1	ANA	14	0	0.60
2	VGK	11	0	0.75
2	ANA	21	0	1.34
3	VGK	28	1	1.91
3	ANA	9	1	0.68
4	VGK	3	0	0.49
4	ANA	3	0	0.25

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 64.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 4 Anaheim Ducks

Expected: 3.5 - 2.9