Florida Panthers at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2025-11-10 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 3 Florida Panthers

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VGK: 56.9%

FLA: 43.1%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.28

FLA: 2.88

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VGK

Carl Lindbom - 0-3-2 | 0.874 SV% | 3.18 GAA

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Stat	VGK	FLA
Season SV%	0.874	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.18	2.80

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Carl Lindbom	20	17	3	85.0%	2.12	1	-0.88
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	32	30	2	93.8%	3.45	4	1.45

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • VGK at home vs FLA: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-10	VGK 2 - 3 FLA	FLA	VGK
2025-10-25	FLA 3 - 0 VGK	FLA	VGK
2025-01-26	VGK 4 - 1 FLA	VGK	VGK
2024-10-19	FLA 4 - 3 VGK	FLA	FLA
2024-01-04	VGK 1 - 4 FLA	FLA	VGK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	18	2	1.32
1	FLA	18	0	0.63
2	VGK	11	1	1.00
2	FLA	11	1	0.93
3	VGK	16	1	1.13
3	FLA	8	0	0.56

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown