Toronto Maple Leafs at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2025-11-11 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 5 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

Win Probability

BOS: 59.1%

TOR: 40.9%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.68

TOR: 2.80

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 61% • BOS at home vs TOR: 6-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	BOS 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	BOS
2025-11-11	BOS 5 - 3 TOR	BOS	BOS
2025-11-08	TOR 3 - 5 BOS	BOS	TOR
2025-02-25	BOS 4 - 5 TOR	TOR	TOR
2025-01-04	TOR 6 - 4 BOS	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	20	1	1.44
1	TOR	10	0	0.91
2	BOS	19	1	1.46
2	TOR	21	2	1.70
3	BOS	17	1	1.31
3	TOR	20	1	1.37

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Boston Bruins 5 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.7 - 2.8