Dallas Stars at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions
2025-11-11 • Canadian Tire Centre
Ottawa Senators 2 - 3 Dallas Stars (OT)
🚨 Upset Loss (63% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
OTT: 63.0%
DAL: 37.0%
Expected Goals
OTT: 3.59
DAL: 2.99
Total Goals
Median: 6.1
Over 5.5: 61%
Over 6.5: 47%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
OTT
Linus Ullmark - 16-8-5 | 0.884 SV% | 2.86 GAA
DAL
Jake Oettinger - 23-10-4 | 0.897 SV% | 2.73 GAA
| Stat | OTT | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.881 | 0.907 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.882 | 0.860 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.847 | 0.931 |
| GAA | 2.95 | 2.57 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • OTT at home vs DAL: 2-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | DAL 6 - 1 OTT | DAL | DAL |
| 2025-11-11 | OTT 2 - 3 DAL | DAL | OTT |
| 2025-01-12 | OTT 3 - 2 DAL | OTT | OTT |
| 2025-01-02 | DAL 4 - 2 OTT | DAL | DAL |
| 2024-02-22 | OTT 4 - 1 DAL | OTT | OTT |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 08:53 | OTT | Goal |
| 1 | 00:49 | OTT | Goal |
| 2 | 16:22 | OTT | Goal |
| 3 | 08:00 | OTT | Goal |
| 4 | 03:04 | DAL | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 63.0%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.6
Score Breakdown
Ottawa Senators 2 - 3 Dallas Stars
Expected: 3.6 - 3.0