Dallas Stars at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2025-11-11 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 2 - 3 Dallas Stars (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

OTT: 55.2%

DAL: 44.8%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.40

DAL: 3.08

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Stat	OTT	DAL
Season SV%	0.881	0.907
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.95	2.57

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Linus Ullmark	33	30	3	90.9%	2.72	1	-0.28
DAL	Jake Oettinger	29	27	2	93.1%	2.40	0	0.40

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • OTT at home vs DAL: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-30	DAL 6 - 1 OTT	DAL	OTT
2025-11-11	OTT 2 - 3 DAL	DAL	OTT
2025-01-12	OTT 3 - 2 DAL	OTT	OTT
2025-01-02	DAL 4 - 2 OTT	DAL	DAL
2024-02-22	OTT 4 - 1 DAL	OTT	DAL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	15	0	0.88
1	DAL	9	0	0.38
2	OTT	12	0	0.70
2	DAL	10	0	0.62
3	OTT	10	0	0.47
3	DAL	19	0	1.13
4	OTT	3	0	0.36
4	DAL	4	1	0.59

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 2 - 3 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.4 - 3.1