Washington Capitals at Carolina Hurricanes NHL Predictions

2025-11-11 • Lenovo Center

Carolina Hurricanes 1 - 4 Washington Capitals

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CAR: 57.8%

WSH: 42.2%

Expected Goals

CAR: 2.94

WSH: 2.88

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

Stat	CAR	WSH
Season SV%	0.865	0.913
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.38	2.39

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CAR	Frederik Andersen	28	24	4	85.7%	3.37	3	-0.63
WSH	Logan Thompson	31	30	1	96.8%	3.99	4	2.99

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 68% • CAR at home vs WSH: 8-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-13	CAR 4 - 2 WSH	CAR	CAR
2026-10-02	CAR 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH
2026-01-31	WSH 4 - 3 CAR	WSH	CAR
2025-12-11	WSH 2 - 3 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-11-11	CAR 1 - 4 WSH	WSH	CAR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CAR	12	1	1.11
1	WSH	16	0	0.74
2	CAR	18	1	1.54
2	WSH	12	1	0.81
3	CAR	18	2	1.35
3	WSH	11	2	1.81

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown