Columbus Blue Jackets at Seattle Kraken NHL Predictions

2025-11-11 • Climate Pledge Arena

Seattle Kraken 1 - 2 Columbus Blue Jackets (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

SEA: 58.5%

CBJ: 41.5%

Expected Goals

SEA: 3.16

CBJ: 2.95

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

SEA

Matt Murray - 0-2-1 | 0.922 SV% | 2.21 GAA

CBJ

Jet Greaves - 11-10-5 | 0.909 SV% | 2.62 GAA

Stat	SEA	CBJ
Season SV%	0.922	0.909
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.21	2.62

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SEA	Matt Murray	38	35	3	92.1%	5.07	3	2.07
CBJ	Jet Greaves	27	25	2	92.6%	3.36	2	1.36

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • SEA at home vs CBJ: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-21	CBJ 5 - 2 SEA	CBJ	CBJ
2025-11-11	SEA 1 - 2 CBJ	CBJ	SEA
2025-01-09	CBJ 6 - 2 SEA	CBJ	CBJ
2024-11-12	SEA 5 - 2 CBJ	SEA	CBJ
2024-01-28	SEA 4 - 2 CBJ	SEA	SEA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SEA	14	1	0.77
1	CBJ	20	1	1.34
2	SEA	16	0	0.80
2	CBJ	15	0	0.87
3	SEA	10	0	0.53
3	CBJ	16	0	0.73
4	SEA	1	0	0.13
4	CBJ	2	0	0.08
5	SEA	4	1	1.12
5	CBJ	4	2	2.04

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Seattle Kraken 1 - 2 Columbus Blue Jackets

Expected: 3.2 - 3.0