Buffalo Sabres at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2025-11-13 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 6 - 3 Buffalo Sabres

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

COL: 82.5%

BUF: 17.5%

Expected Goals

COL: 4.05

BUF: 2.50

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood - 13-1-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.07 GAA

BUF

Alex Lyon - 10-6-3 | 0.906 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Stat	COL	BUF
Season SV%	0.924	0.906
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.07	2.82

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	21	18	3	85.7%	3.13	1	0.13
BUF	Alex Lyon	34	28	6	82.4%	4.34	4	-1.66

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • COL at home vs BUF: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-13	COL 6 - 3 BUF	COL	COL
2025-10-13	BUF 1 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2025-01-02	COL 6 - 5 BUF	COL	COL
2024-12-03	BUF 4 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2023-12-13	COL 5 - 1 BUF	COL	COL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	16	2	1.26
1	BUF	14	1	1.34
2	COL	20	1	1.11
2	BUF	13	0	1.28
3	COL	22	1	1.96
3	BUF	12	0	0.51

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 82.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown