New York Islanders at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2025-11-13 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 4 New York Islanders (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (62% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VGK: 61.6%

NYI: 38.4%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.48

NYI: 2.97

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 37%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VGK

Akira Schmid - 11-4-4 | 0.895 SV% | 2.50 GAA

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Stat	VGK	NYI
Season SV%	0.895	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.50	2.55

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Akira Schmid	24	20	4	83.3%	2.98	1	-1.02
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	29	26	3	89.7%	4.68	5	1.68

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • VGK at home vs NYI: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-09	NYI 5 - 4 VGK	NYI	NYI
2025-11-13	VGK 3 - 4 NYI	NYI	VGK
2025-02-04	NYI 2 - 1 VGK	NYI	VGK
2025-01-09	VGK 0 - 4 NYI	NYI	VGK
2024-01-23	NYI 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	14	2	1.18
1	NYI	11	0	0.58
2	VGK	15	1	1.91
2	NYI	15	0	1.09
3	VGK	15	2	1.05
3	NYI	13	0	0.84
4	VGK	5	0	0.54
4	NYI	3	1	0.47

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 4 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.5 - 3.0