Philadelphia Flyers at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions

2025-11-14 • Enterprise Center

St. Louis Blues 5 - 6 Philadelphia Flyers (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

STL: 54.4%

PHI: 45.6%

Expected Goals

STL: 3.01

PHI: 3.06

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 41%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

Stat	STL	PHI
Season SV%	0.869	0.868
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.56	3.09

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
STL	Jordan Binnington	33	27	6	81.8%	3.26	1	-2.74
PHI	Samuel Ersson	19	14	5	73.7%	2.53	1	-2.47

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • STL at home vs PHI: 0-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-20	PHI 3 - 2 STL	PHI	PHI
2025-11-14	STL 5 - 6 PHI	PHI	STL
2024-11-30	STL 2 - 3 PHI	PHI	STL
2024-10-31	PHI 2 - 1 STL	PHI	PHI
2024-03-04	PHI 1 - 2 STL	STL	PHI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	STL	10	0	0.74
1	PHI	11	0	0.53
2	STL	8	0	0.49
2	PHI	15	0	0.71
3	STL	9	1	0.83
3	PHI	8	0	0.49
4	STL	2	0	0.28
4	PHI	6	0	0.63
5	STL	3	0	0.19
5	PHI	2	1	0.91

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

St. Louis Blues 5 - 6 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.0 - 3.1