Tampa Bay Lightning at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2025-11-15 • Amerant Bank Arena

Florida Panthers 1 - 3 Tampa Bay Lightning

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

FLA: 47.0%

TBL: 53.0%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.05

TBL: 3.17

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Stat	FLA	TBL
Season SV%	0.888	0.913
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.80	2.33

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	20	17	3	85.0%	3.44	2	0.44
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	23	22	1	95.7%	2.03	0	1.03

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 52% • FLA at home vs TBL: 5-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-05	TBL 6 - 1 FLA	TBL	TBL
2025-12-27	FLA 2 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-12-15	TBL 2 - 5 FLA	FLA	TBL
2025-11-15	FLA 1 - 3 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-04-30	TBL 3 - 6 FLA	FLA	TBL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	9	0	0.37
1	TBL	18	1	1.34
2	FLA	15	0	0.66
2	TBL	11	0	0.74
3	FLA	23	0	1.00
3	TBL	5	1	1.36

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown