Boston Bruins at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2025-11-15 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 3 Boston Bruins

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 57.6%

BOS: 42.4%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.63

BOS: 2.93

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 46%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 82% • MTL at home vs BOS: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-17	MTL 3 - 2 BOS	MTL	MTL
2026-01-24	BOS 4 - 3 MTL	BOS	BOS
2025-12-23	BOS 2 - 6 MTL	MTL	BOS
2025-11-15	MTL 2 - 3 BOS	BOS	MTL
2025-04-03	MTL 4 - 1 BOS	MTL	MTL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	11	0	0.85
1	BOS	17	2	1.66
2	MTL	19	0	1.68
2	BOS	10	2	0.74
3	MTL	22	1	1.41
3	BOS	13	2	1.78

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 3 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.6 - 2.9