New Jersey Devils at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2025-11-15 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 2 - 3 New Jersey Devils (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

WSH: 58.1%

NJD: 41.9%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.01

NJD: 3.25

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

NJD

Jake Allen - 11-8-1 | 0.912 SV% | 2.52 GAA

Stat	WSH	NJD
Season SV%	0.913	0.912
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.39	2.52

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Logan Thompson	35	31	4	88.6%	4.92	6	0.92
NJD	Jake Allen	34	31	3	91.2%	4.14	4	1.14

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 42% • WSH at home vs NJD: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	NJD 7 - 3 WSH	NJD	NJD
2026-03-20	WSH 2 - 1 NJD	WSH	NJD
2025-12-27	NJD 3 - 4 WSH	WSH	NJD
2025-11-15	WSH 2 - 3 NJD	NJD	WSH
2024-11-30	NJD 5 - 6 WSH	WSH	NJD

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	10	0	0.37
1	NJD	18	2	1.18
2	WSH	16	1	0.91
2	NJD	14	1	0.67
3	WSH	18	2	1.63
3	NJD	10	0	0.55
4	WSH	2	0	0.22
4	NJD	6	1	0.52
5	WSH	4	1	1.01
5	NJD	4	2	2.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 2 - 3 New Jersey Devils

Expected: 3.0 - 3.2