Vegas Golden Knights at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions

2025-11-15 • Enterprise Center

St. Louis Blues 1 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

STL: 35.6%

VGK: 64.4%

Expected Goals

STL: 2.71

VGK: 3.55

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 52%

Over 6.5: 40%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

STL

Joel Hofer - 8-8-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.87 GAA

VGK

Akira Schmid - 11-4-4 | 0.895 SV% | 2.50 GAA

Stat	STL	VGK
Season SV%	0.901	0.895
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.87	2.50

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
STL	Joel Hofer	34	30	4	88.2%	3.09	0	-0.91
VGK	Akira Schmid	23	22	1	95.7%	1.40	0	0.40

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • STL at home vs VGK: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-10	VGK 4 - 2 STL	VGK	VGK
2026-01-02	STL 4 - 3 VGK	STL	VGK
2025-11-15	STL 1 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-01-23	STL 2 - 4 VGK	VGK	STL
2025-01-20	VGK 4 - 5 STL	STL	VGK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	STL	11	0.36
1	VGK	25	1.35
2	STL	12	0.51
2	VGK	21	1.05
3	STL	11	0.53
3	VGK	9	0.69

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 64.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown