Winnipeg Jets at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2025-11-15 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 3 - 4 Winnipeg Jets (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CGY: 56.9%

WPG: 43.1%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.15

WPG: 3.22

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Stat	CGY	WPG
Season SV%	0.901	0.907
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.82	2.51

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Dustin Wolf	26	22	4	84.6%	4.09	3	0.09
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	37	34	3	91.9%	3.17	1	0.17

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • CGY at home vs WPG: 4-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-15	CGY 3 - 4 WPG	WPG	CGY
2025-10-24	WPG 5 - 3 CGY	WPG	WPG
2025-10-20	CGY 1 - 2 WPG	WPG	WPG
2025-01-26	WPG 5 - 2 CGY	WPG	WPG
2025-01-18	WPG 1 - 3 CGY	CGY	WPG

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	14	0	0.58
1	WPG	16	1	1.12
2	CGY	18	0	0.97
2	WPG	19	0	0.84
3	CGY	14	1	1.15
3	WPG	8	1	0.91
4	CGY	3	0	0.26
4	WPG	2	0	0.11
5	CGY	3	0	0.21
5	WPG	3	1	1.11

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 3 - 4 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 3.1 - 3.2