Detroit Red Wings at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2025-11-16 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 1 - 2 Detroit Red Wings

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYR: 59.1%

DET: 40.9%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.24

DET: 3.04

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYR

Jonathan Quick - 3-6-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.11 GAA

DET

Cam Talbot - 11-6-3 | 0.888 SV% | 2.99 GAA

Stat	NYR	DET
Season SV%	0.924	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.11	2.99

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Jonathan Quick	42	40	2	95.2%	5.27	2	3.27
DET	Cam Talbot	19	18	1	94.7%	2.14	0	1.14

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • NYR at home vs DET: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	NYR 4 - 1 DET	NYR	NYR
2025-11-16	NYR 1 - 2 DET	DET	NYR
2025-11-07	DET 1 - 4 NYR	NYR	DET
2024-11-09	DET 0 - 4 NYR	NYR	NYR
2024-10-17	DET 2 - 5 NYR	NYR	NYR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	14	0	0.70
1	DET	11	0	0.44
2	NYR	13	0	0.86
2	DET	23	1	2.42
3	NYR	9	0	0.58
3	DET	23	1	2.42

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown