New York Islanders at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2025-11-16 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 4 - 1 New York Islanders

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

COL: 77.9%

NYI: 22.1%

Expected Goals

COL: 4.10

NYI: 2.40

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 50%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

COL

Scott Wedgewood - 17-1-4 | 0.919 SV% | 2.13 GAA

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Stat	COL	NYI
Season SV%	0.919	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.13	2.55

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Scott Wedgewood	29	28	1	96.6%	2.93	2	1.93
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	28	24	4	85.7%	3.56	5	-0.44

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • COL at home vs NYI: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-04	NYI 6 - 3 COL	NYI	NYI
2025-11-16	COL 4 - 1 NYI	COL	COL
2025-01-28	NYI 5 - 2 COL	NYI	COL
2024-10-14	COL 2 - 6 NYI	NYI	COL
2024-01-02	COL 5 - 4 NYI	COL	COL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	13	1	0.64
1	NYI	14	0	0.61
2	COL	15	1	1.09
2	NYI	15	1	1.13
3	COL	13	3	1.82
3	NYI	16	1	1.19

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 77.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown