New Jersey Devils at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-11-18 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 1 New Jersey Devils

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TBL: 61.9%

NJD: 38.1%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.37

NJD: 2.88

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 40%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

NJD

Jacob Markstrom - 9-9-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.32 GAA

Stat	TBL	NJD
Season SV%	0.913	0.884
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.33	3.32

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	32	31	1	96.9%	3.56	2	2.56
NJD	Jacob Markstrom	29	24	5	82.8%	3.61	2	-1.39

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TBL at home vs NJD: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-11	NJD 4 - 8 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-18	TBL 5 - 1 NJD	TBL	TBL
2025-10-11	TBL 3 - 5 NJD	NJD	TBL
2025-01-11	NJD 3 - 2 TBL	NJD	NJD
2024-11-16	TBL 4 - 0 NJD	TBL	TBL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	9	0	0.81
1	NJD	17	1	1.08
2	TBL	18	2	1.86
2	NJD	16	1	1.66
3	TBL	16	0	0.93
3	NJD	14	0	0.82

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown