New York Islanders at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2025-11-18 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 2 - 3 New York Islanders

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DAL: 57.0%

NYI: 43.0%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.35

NYI: 3.04

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

NYI

David Rittich - 10-5-2 | 0.909 SV% | 2.46 GAA

Stat	DAL	NYI
Season SV%	0.907	0.909
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.57	2.46

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	22	19	3	86.4%	1.97	2	-1.03
NYI	David Rittich	24	22	2	91.7%	2.94	2	0.94

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 17% • DAL at home vs NYI: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-26	NYI 2 - 1 DAL	NYI	DAL
2025-11-18	DAL 2 - 3 NYI	NYI	DAL
2025-02-23	NYI 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	NYI
2024-10-12	DAL 3 - 0 NYI	DAL	DAL
2024-02-26	DAL 2 - 3 NYI	NYI	DAL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	14	2	1.22
1	NYI	12	0	0.54
2	DAL	10	0	0.87
2	NYI	13	1	0.76
3	DAL	13	0	0.85
3	NYI	8	1	0.67

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown