Edmonton Oilers at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2025-11-19 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 7 - 4 Edmonton Oilers

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

WSH: 49.2%

EDM: 50.8%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.55

EDM: 3.49

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 40%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

Stat	WSH	EDM
Season SV%	0.913	0.896
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.39	2.81

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Logan Thompson	30	26	4	86.7%	3.76	1	-0.24
EDM	Stuart Skinner	22	15	7	68.2%	4.20	4	-2.80

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • WSH at home vs EDM: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-24	EDM 6 - 5 WSH	EDM	EDM
2025-11-19	WSH 7 - 4 EDM	WSH	EDM
2025-02-23	WSH 7 - 3 EDM	WSH	EDM
2025-01-21	EDM 2 - 3 WSH	WSH	WSH
2024-03-13	EDM 7 - 2 WSH	EDM	EDM

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	15	2	1.73
1	EDM	13	0	1.01
2	WSH	10	0	0.57
2	EDM	11	0	0.78
3	WSH	10	2	1.90
3	EDM	24	1	1.97

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 7.0

Score Breakdown