Calgary Flames at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions
2025-11-19 • KeyBank Center
Buffalo Sabres 2 - 6 Calgary Flames
🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
BUF: 59.2%
CGY: 40.8%
Expected Goals
BUF: 3.35
CGY: 2.87
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 55%
Over 6.5: 40%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
BUF
Alex Lyon - 14-8-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.72 GAA
CGY
Dustin Wolf - 16-21-3 | 0.895 SV% | 3.00 GAA
| Stat | BUF | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.906 | 0.901 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.934 | 0.877 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 1.000 | 0.862 |
| GAA | 2.82 | 2.82 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • BUF at home vs CGY: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-08 | CGY 7 - 4 BUF | CGY | CGY |
| 2025-11-19 | BUF 2 - 6 CGY | CGY | BUF |
| 2025-01-23 | CGY 5 - 2 BUF | CGY | CGY |
| 2024-11-09 | BUF 3 - 2 CGY | BUF | BUF |
| 2024-03-24 | CGY 1 - 4 BUF | BUF | CGY |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12:04 | CGY | Goal |
| 1 | 05:58 | CGY | Goal |
| 2 | 15:57 | BUF | Goal |
| 2 | 10:21 | CGY | Goal |
| 3 | 17:49 | CGY | Goal |
| 3 | 09:50 | CGY | Goal |
| 3 | 07:34 | CGY | Goal |
| 3 | 02:02 | CGY | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 59.2%
Total Goals
Actual: 8.0
Expected: 6.2
Score Breakdown
Buffalo Sabres 2 - 6 Calgary Flames
Expected: 3.3 - 2.9