Calgary Flames at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2025-11-19 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 2 - 6 Calgary Flames

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 58.5%

CGY: 41.5%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.22

CGY: 2.94

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 51%

Over 6.5: 39%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • BUF at home vs CGY: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-08	CGY 7 - 4 BUF	CGY	CGY
2025-11-19	BUF 2 - 6 CGY	CGY	BUF
2025-01-23	CGY 5 - 2 BUF	CGY	CGY
2024-11-09	BUF 3 - 2 CGY	BUF	BUF
2024-03-24	CGY 1 - 4 BUF	BUF	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	8	0	0.38
1	CGY	17	0	1.03
2	BUF	17	0	0.85
2	CGY	11	0	0.43
3	BUF	18	0	0.51
3	CGY	20	2	1.28

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 2 - 6 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.2 - 2.9