Carolina Hurricanes at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2025-11-19 • Grand Casino Arena

Minnesota Wild 4 - 3 Carolina Hurricanes (SO)

🚨 Upset Win (62% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MIN: 38.2%

CAR: 61.8%

Expected Goals

MIN: 3.01

CAR: 3.58

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MIN

Jesper Wallstedt - 11-2-3 | 0.928 SV% | 2.21 GAA

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

Stat	MIN	CAR
Season SV%	0.928	0.865
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.21	3.38

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MIN	Jesper Wallstedt	48	45	3	93.8%	3.75	0	0.75
CAR	Frederik Andersen	22	18	4	81.8%	2.48	1	-1.52

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • MIN at home vs CAR: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-19	MIN 4 - 3 CAR	MIN	CAR
2025-11-06	CAR 4 - 3 MIN	CAR	CAR
2025-02-06	MIN 2 - 1 CAR	MIN	CAR
2025-01-04	CAR 0 - 4 MIN	MIN	CAR
2024-02-27	MIN 2 - 3 CAR	CAR	CAR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MIN	13	0	0.79
1	CAR	21	0	0.89
2	MIN	8	0	0.32
2	CAR	25	0	1.37
3	MIN	5	0	0.36
3	CAR	18	0	0.96
4	MIN	1	0	0.03
4	CAR	3	0	0.31
5	MIN	3	1	0.97
5	CAR	3	0	0.22

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Minnesota Wild 4 - 3 Carolina Hurricanes

Expected: 3.0 - 3.6