Columbus Blue Jackets at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-11-20 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 3 Columbus Blue Jackets (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TOR: 53.7%

CBJ: 46.3%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.41

CBJ: 2.92

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

CBJ

Jet Greaves - 11-10-5 | 0.909 SV% | 2.62 GAA

Stat	TOR	CBJ
Season SV%	0.914	0.909
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.74	2.62

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Joseph Woll	30	27	3	90.0%	2.98	2	-0.02
CBJ	Jet Greaves	29	27	2	93.1%	2.60	1	0.60

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • TOR at home vs CBJ: 1-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-26	CBJ 1 - 2 TOR	TOR	CBJ
2025-11-20	TOR 2 - 3 CBJ	CBJ	TOR
2025-10-29	CBJ 6 - 3 TOR	CBJ	CBJ
2025-04-05	TOR 5 - 0 CBJ	TOR	TOR
2025-01-22	TOR 1 - 5 CBJ	CBJ	TOR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	18	1	1.53
1	CBJ	7	0	0.28
2	TOR	13	0	0.45
2	CBJ	18	1	0.82
3	TOR	11	0	0.42
3	CBJ	17	1	1.52
4	TOR	2	0	0.19
4	CBJ	4	0	0.36

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 3 Columbus Blue Jackets

Expected: 3.4 - 2.9