Washington Capitals at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2025-11-20 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 8 Washington Capitals

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MTL: 53.7%

WSH: 46.3%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.38

WSH: 2.91

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

WSH

Charlie Lindgren - 6-4-2 | 0.887 SV% | 3.07 GAA

Stat	MTL	WSH
Season SV%	0.863	0.887
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.52	3.07

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	36	28	8	77.8%	3.93	5	-4.07
WSH	Charlie Lindgren	28	24	4	85.7%	3.90	2	-0.10

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 86% • MTL at home vs WSH: 3-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-28	MTL 6 - 2 WSH	MTL	MTL
2026-01-13	WSH 3 - 2 MTL	WSH	WSH
2025-11-20	MTL 4 - 8 WSH	WSH	MTL
2025-04-30	WSH 4 - 1 MTL	WSH	WSH
2025-04-27	MTL 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	15	1	1.83
1	WSH	10	0	0.48
2	MTL	11	1	0.99
2	WSH	21	3	1.47
3	MTL	14	0	1.09
3	WSH	23	2	1.98

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 12.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown