Washington Capitals at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions
2025-11-20 • Centre Bell
Montreal Canadiens 4 - 8 Washington Capitals
🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
MTL: 59.2%
WSH: 40.8%
Expected Goals
MTL: 3.80
WSH: 2.80
Total Goals
Median: 6.4
Over 5.5: 65%
Over 6.5: 49%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
MTL
Jakub Dobes - 18-5-4 | 0.892 SV% | 2.96 GAA
WSH
Logan Thompson - 20-16-4 | 0.913 SV% | 2.41 GAA
| Stat | MTL | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.889 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.903 | 0.904 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.840 | 0.920 |
| GAA | 3.01 | 2.39 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 54% • MTL at home vs WSH: 2-4
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-13 | WSH 3 - 2 MTL | WSH | WSH |
| 2025-11-20 | MTL 4 - 8 WSH | WSH | MTL |
| 2025-04-30 | WSH 4 - 1 MTL | WSH | WSH |
| 2025-04-27 | MTL 2 - 5 WSH | WSH | MTL |
| 2025-04-25 | MTL 6 - 3 WSH | MTL | MTL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15:47 | MTL | Goal |
| 1 | 01:00 | WSH | Goal |
| 2 | 17:25 | WSH | Goal |
| 2 | 15:04 | WSH | Goal |
| 2 | 14:26 | WSH | Goal |
| 2 | 07:53 | WSH | Goal |
| 2 | 03:38 | WSH | Goal |
| 2 | 02:00 | WSH | Goal |
| 3 | 18:34 | WSH | Goal |
| 3 | 17:56 | WSH | Goal |
| 3 | 16:03 | WSH | Goal |
| 3 | 05:37 | WSH | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 59.2%
Total Goals
Actual: 12.0
Expected: 6.6
Score Breakdown
Montreal Canadiens 4 - 8 Washington Capitals
Expected: 3.8 - 2.8