Edmonton Oilers at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-11-20 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 1 Edmonton Oilers (OT)

Win Probability

TBL: 67.4%

EDM: 32.6%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.42

EDM: 3.00

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • TBL at home vs EDM: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-21	EDM 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	EDM
2025-11-20	TBL 2 - 1 EDM	TBL	TBL
2025-02-25	TBL 4 - 1 EDM	TBL	EDM
2024-12-10	EDM 2 - 1 TBL	EDM	EDM
2023-12-14	EDM 4 - 7 TBL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	9	1	0.55
1	EDM	15	0	0.83
2	TBL	12	1	0.98
2	EDM	13	0	0.82
3	TBL	22	0	1.19
3	EDM	7	0	0.37
4	TBL	2	0	0.20
4	EDM	3	0	0.20

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 67.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 1 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 3.4 - 3.0